Agentic AI Shift Driving Data Center Chip Market Toward $1.2 Trillion by 2030: Futurum Report

The global data center semiconductor market is on track to expand more than fivefold, reaching $1.2 trillion by 2030 as artificial intelligence (AI) hardware demand shifts decisively from model training to agentic inference.

According to a five-year forecast from tech research firm The Futurum Group, revenue in the sector hit $241 billion in 2025, a 3.6-fold surge from $66.6 billion in 2023. Under the firm’s baseline projection, the market will climb to $1.21 trillion by 2030 at a 38.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Growth is expected to be heavily front-loaded. Market revenues are projected to more than double in 2026, followed by a 54.0% gain in 2027 as committed capacity lands, before decelerating as the market matures. Futurum outlined two alternative scenarios: a bull case reaching $2.2 trillion on accelerated continuous-learning investments, and a bear case compressing to $746.6 billion due to return-on-investment scrutiny, packaging bottlenecks, and power grid limitations.

Driven by rapid continuous-learning adoption, the global data center semiconductor market could surge to $2.2 trillion in a bull-case scenario by calendar year 2030. In its base case, the market is projected to reach $1.21 trillion, representing a 38.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from $241 billion in 2025. However, headwinds such as power grid limitations, advanced packaging bottlenecks, and return-on-investment pressures could squeeze growth to a bear case of $746.6 billion.

The core driver behind the market’s restructuring is the pivot toward agentic inference, where AI systems autonomously execute complex, multi-step reasoning rather than merely training foundational models.

Inference-dedicated accelerators will expand from roughly half the market in 2025 to 73% by 2030, accounting for $884.9 billion. Agent and reasoning-first inference alone is set to reach $546.0 billion, representing 45% of total data center chip revenue.

“2026 is the first year of the inference transition that defines the rest of the decade,” said Brendan Burke, research director for semiconductors, supply chain, and emerging tech at Futurum. “High-concurrency agentic workloads will set the architecture for vendor roadmaps through 2027.”

The report highlights several structural re-alignments within the hardware supply chain:

• Custom XPUs outpace GPUs. Graphics processing units (GPUs) will maintain half the market by 2030 at $604.5 billion. However, custom application-specific processors (XPUs) are projected as the fastest-growing category (44.6% CAGR to $237.2 billion), offering up to a 75% cost advantage over comparable GPU setups.
• Memory constraints take center stage. Off-chip memory is slated to be the fastest-growing line overall, surging at a 72.4% CAGR to $260.5 billion. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to grow 5.9-fold to $197.6 billion as memory bandwidth replaces raw compute as the primary constraint on inference.
• CPU resurgence. Central processing units (CPUs) are experiencing a resurgence, expanding from $28.9 billion to $110.4 billion as agentic orchestration pushes CPU-to-GPU ratios back toward 1:1 or higher.
• Hyperscalers and geographic distribution. Major cloud hyperscalers will remain the dominant buyer segment, capturing 50% of total revenue ($606.5 billion by 2030), while Tier 2 cloud providers represent the fastest-growing deployment model at a 52.5% CAGR. Geographically, the U.S. will hold the largest market share at $477.7 billion (39%), while Asia excluding China is slated for the fastest regional growth at 45.6% CAGR.